Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:24:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
17 0x1707…93c4 other 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 410d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$9,422 (+17%) realized +$9,451 · open −$29
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate72%58W / 23L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$648per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$725now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$293
7 days−$31
14 days+$66
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% −$4,350
other 42% +$13,647
world 2% +$151
tech 1% +$21
culture 0% −$55
sports 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -6.8% -15.7% 78% 61% -10.0%
≤30d 42 +9.0% -1.4% 74% 62% -4.7%
≤90d 52 +2.5% -7.2% 71% 56% -9.8%
all 81 +10.4% -0.1% 72% 49% +6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.1% 49% +6.9%
10% -9.7% 28% -3.3%
15% -18.4% 20% -12.7%
20% -26.4% 14% -21.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$312 vs −$393 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

410d coverage
Net worth$725
Realized+$9,451
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses58 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)81 / 87
History coverage410d
Avg bet$648
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027? No 89¢ 92¢ $267 $275 +$8 (+3%)
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? No 87¢ 89¢ $175 $180 +$4 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 76¢ $118 $114 −$4 (-3%)
Will there be 1-2 North Korea tests in June 2026? Yes 92¢ 91¢ $93 $92 −$1 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 80¢ $42 $40 −$3 (-6%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 58¢ 24¢ $58 $25 −$34 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $99 +$7 +7%
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 28 $196 +$44 +22%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $172 +$28 +16%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $171 +$28 +16%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $410 +$69 +17%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $144 +$44 +31%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $44 −$44 -100%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 27 $93 −$60 -65%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $274 +$26 +10%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $840 +$151 +18%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $180 +$22 +12%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $363 −$362 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $123 +$22 +18%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$44 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $180 +$12 +7%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $179 +$21 +12%
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $104 −$95 -91%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $89 +$11 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $67 +$33 +50%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $80 +$20 +25%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $451 +$49 +11%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $9 −$8 -98%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $24 −$16 -69%
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? Jun 16 $133 +$20 +15%
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $40 +$53 +130%
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? Jun 11 $338 +$25 +8%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 09 $132 +$67 +51%
Will Tim Cook say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the Apple W Jun 08 $72 +$21 +30%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by between 3% and Jun 05 $263 +$37 +14%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%? Jun 05 $52 +$48 +92%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%? Jun 05 $50 +$50 +100%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $430 +$303 +70%
Will Lee Won-taek win the 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Election Jun 04 $0 +$2 +354%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $836 +$189 +23%
Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $24 +$12 +50%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $1,233 −$164 -13%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by 9% or more? Jun 03 $275 −$93 -34%
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? Jun 03 $349 +$25 +7%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 10 or more seats in South Korea Jun 03 $61 +$21 +35%
Will voter turnout be between 60% and 65% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral el Jun 03 $548 −$493 -90%
Will voter turnout be between 55% and 60% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral el Jun 03 $118 −$97 -82%
Will Kim Kwan-young win the 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Electi Jun 02 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the May M May 28 $18 +$1 +8%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $51 +$25 +48%
Will Kim Doo-kyum win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? May 14 $12 +$3 +21%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $112 +$1 +1%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? May 10 $92 +$3 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 10 $76 +$13 +18%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the most seats in South Ko May 01 $62 −$61 -98%
Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68 Apr 28 $55 −$55 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 93¢ $99 44m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $76 1h
Will there be 1-2 North Korea tests in June 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $93 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 100¢ $200 3h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 86¢ $172 3h
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 82¢ $42 3h
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $33 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $171 19h
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $28 21h
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $25 21h
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $104 22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 88¢ $80 23h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 88¢ $4 23h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 88¢ $4 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 22¢ $44 23h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 33¢ $25 24h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 33¢ $8 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 93¢ $199 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 93¢ $2 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 93¢ $9 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 93¢ $7 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 93¢ $50 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 93¢ $2 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 93¢ $9 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 72¢ $141 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 72¢ $3 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 91¢ $274 26h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 98¢ $285 26h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 98¢ $206 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $724.90 · official $724.90 (match) · 1138 history records