Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:22:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
17 0x1707…f7ee sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$33 (+14%) realized +$56 · open −$23
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate77%10W / 3L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +12.4% +1.7% 77% 62% +5.9%
≤30d 13 +12.4% +1.7% 77% 62% +5.9%
≤90d 13 +12.4% +1.7% 77% 62% +5.9%
all 13 +12.4% +1.7% 77% 62% +5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.7% 62% +5.9%
10% -8.1% 54% -4.2%
15% -16.9% 31% -13.5%
20% -25.1% 0% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.69 per $1 lost it wins $3.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$56
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses10 / 3
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage6d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova Hernan Casanova 61¢ 14¢ $30 $7 −$23 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 17 $30 +$15 +48%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Federico Bondioli Jun 17 $30 +$5 +17%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 16 $15 −$3 -21%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch Jun 16 $15 +$5 +32%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $20 +$1 +4%
ITF Tokyo: Naoki Nakagawa vs Leo Vithoontien Jun 16 $12 +$5 +43%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 15 $12 +$3 +29%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $10 +$5 +48%
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 15 $12 −$1 -9%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $20 +$5 +23%
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 12 $11 +$5 +41%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 12 $10 +$1 +5%
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri Jun 12 $9 −$9 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gonzalo Villanueva SELL Gonzalo Villanueva 83¢ $45 1h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 55¢ $30 3h
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova BUY Hernan Casanova 61¢ $30 3h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Federico Bondioli SELL Marco Cecchinato 76¢ $35 9h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres SELL Juan Bautista Torres 52¢ $12 22h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Federico Bondioli BUY Marco Cecchinato 64¢ $30 24h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 64¢ $15 25h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch SELL Grigor Dimitrov 88¢ $20 31h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Tallon Griekspoor 84¢ $16 32h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Sho Shimabukuro 43¢ $5 32h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 72¢ $9 33h
ITF Tokyo: Naoki Nakagawa vs Leo Vithoontien SELL Naoki Nakagawa 90¢ $17 42h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 58¢ $11 44h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch BUY Grigor Dimitrov 66¢ $15 44h
ITF Tokyo: Naoki Nakagawa vs Leo Vithoontien BUY Naoki Nakagawa 62¢ $12 45h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio SELL Sebastian Ofner 95¢ $16 2d
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang SELL Zhizhen Zhang 86¢ $15 2d
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate BUY Tristan Schoolkate 54¢ $12 2d
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio BUY Sebastian Ofner 73¢ $12 2d
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 57¢ $10 2d
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer SELL Tristan Boyer 80¢ $25 4d
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer BUY Tristan Boyer 64¢ $20 5d
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko SELL Petr Brunclik 73¢ $16 5d
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko BUY Petr Brunclik 51¢ $11 5d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Marco Cecchinato SELL Jesper de Jong 79¢ $11 5d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Marco Cecchinato BUY Jesper de Jong 74¢ $10 5d
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri BUY Andrea Guerrieri 59¢ $9 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.89 · official $10.33 · 28 history records