Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:25:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
17 0x1706…3eb7 other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$39 (+1%) realized +$58 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%17W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$2
14 days+$133
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$209
sports 39% +$190
crypto 3% +$74
world 1% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +21.6% +10.1% 35% 35% -9.5%
≤30d 43 +19.3% +7.9% 40% 40% -8.6%
≤90d 43 +19.3% +7.9% 40% 40% -8.6%
all 43 +19.3% +7.9% 40% 40% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.9% 40% -8.6%
10% -2.4% 40% -17.4%
15% -11.8% 33% -25.3%
20% -20.5% 26% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +60% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$53 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$58
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses17 / 26
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage22d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Yes 47¢ 3¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$32 -32%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$80 +388%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $101 +$80 +79%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $101 +$36 +36%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $51 +$66 +130%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $202 −$61 -30%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $26 +$79 +307%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $21 −$16 -80%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $20 +$91 +442%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 +$98 +97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $206 −$200 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$115 +1116%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $202 +$110 +55%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$54 -52%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $202 +$69 +34%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $201 +$62 +31%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$210 +206%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$121 +119%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$31 +31%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $101 +$44 +44%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $101 +$36 +36%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 40m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 42¢ $69 43m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 11h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 11h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 11h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $101 13h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 28¢ $20 19h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $101 19h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $20 21h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 22h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 50¢ $141 22h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 23h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 27h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 34h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 34h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 34h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 45h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 45h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY 52¢ $51 46h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 22¢ $26 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 4d
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.25 · official $1.25 (match) · 66 history records