Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:48:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1706…dc00 crypto 167 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$4 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%65W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day17.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$0
14 days−$33
30 days−$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$104
sports 0% −$5
other 0% −$3
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +38.4% +25.2% 26% 22% -8.3%
≤30d 166 +19.6% +8.2% 39% 35% -14.9%
≤90d 166 +19.6% +8.2% 39% 35% -14.9%
all 166 +19.6% +8.2% 39% 35% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.2% 35% -14.9%
10% -2.2% 31% -23.0%
15% -11.6% 28% -30.5%
20% -20.3% 27% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$9 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses65 / 101
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)166 / 167
History coverage22d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 22¢ 24¢ $35 $39 +$4 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$8 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$37 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$16 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$23 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $42 −$15 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$10 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$51 +483%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$58 +1082%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 03 $16 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 03 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 03 $20 −$7 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 03 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 03 $11 −$7 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 03 $9 +$14 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 03 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 31 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 31 $16 −$7 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 31 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 31 $31 −$29 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 31 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 31 $11 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 31 $10 +$16 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 31 $11 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 31 $21 +$18 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 31 $10 −$7 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 31 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 31 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 31 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $48 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $26 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $34 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 49m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.58 · official $40.19 · 437 history records