Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:08:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
17 0x1703…f037 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$51 (+26%) realized +$51 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$57
14 days+$35
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$60
crypto 8% −$10
politics 5% −$10
sports 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +32.5% +19.9% 64% 64% +22.3%
≤30d 15 +7.2% -3.0% 53% 53% +6.8%
≤90d 15 +7.2% -3.0% 53% 53% +6.8%
all 15 +7.2% -3.0% 53% 53% +6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 53% +6.8%
10% -12.3% 53% -3.4%
15% -20.8% 53% -12.8%
20% -28.6% 40% -21.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage13d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? Jun 26 $48 −$3 -6%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? Jun 26 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 25 $3 +$3 +122%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $21 +$27 +134%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $59 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 24 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $26 +$14 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $11 +$15 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$5 -52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $12 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records