Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:38:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1700…a88e world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 489d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +66% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +50% what you keep after slip
Net edge+50%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate48%15W / 16L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% $0
other 14% +$3
sports 3% +$2
tech 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)+49.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.5% -10.0% 29% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.4% -9.8% 32% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 19 -0.4% -9.8% 32% 0% -9.5%
all 31 +65.7% +49.9% 48% 10% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +49.9% 10% -9.1%
10% +35.6% 6% -17.8%
15% +22.5% 6% -25.7%
20% +10.5% 6% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +66% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +136% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

489d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses15 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage489d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 84¢ 86¢ $44 $45 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 21 $79 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $4 $0 -4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $43 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $45 $0 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $43 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $45 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $120 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $57 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $13 −$1 -5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $35 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 08 $23 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $45 −$1 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $30 +$1 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $8 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 04 $1 $0 +26%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 06 $2 $0 +3%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? May 17 $12 $0 +2%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $2 $0 +2%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $11 $0 -0%
Rider vs. Mercer Mar 19 $4 −$2 -40%
Will Mercedes record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing? Mar 03 $10 +$1 +12%
Northwestern vs. Ohio State Feb 28 $6 +$4 +64%
Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? Feb 25 $4 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $44 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $39 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $39 33h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $4 41h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 43h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $43 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $43 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $40 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $40 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $40 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $3 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $44 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $44 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $43 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $16 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $24 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $40 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $39 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $4 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $28 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $32 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $20 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $24 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $43 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $14 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $9 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.72 · official $44.72 (match) · 90 history records