Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16ff…3abf sports 1366 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d only
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$957 (-18%) realized −$960 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate66%885W / 466L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day58.6pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days+$3
14 days−$39
30 days−$217
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$168
sports 35% −$39
other 9% −$35
weather 3% +$3
world 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 227 +0.9% -8.7% 63% 58% -9.1%
≤30d 1181 -6.1% -15.1% 64% 49% -13.9%
≤90d 1351 -5.9% -14.9% 66% 51% -13.7%
all 1351 -5.9% -14.9% 66% 51% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 51% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 38% -21.9%
15% -30.5% 29% -29.5%
20% -37.3% 20% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$960
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses885 / 466
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions15
Markets (closed)1351 / 1366
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day58.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 1351 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 86¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+47%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 50¢ 91¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+82%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 61¢ 72¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner PlayTime 86¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+16%)
Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Open Qualifier 1 Playoffs the bug 92¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Spread: Panama (-1.5) Ghana 90¢ 93¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Haiti 50¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? No 89¢ 81¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? Yes 41¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 Over 74¢ 44¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +73%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $2 $0 +10%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +20%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $2 $0 +23%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 +$2 +119%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $4 +$4 +101%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +26%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $2 $0 +6%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $2 $0 +23%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 +8%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +27%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 +$2 +119%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $2 +$1 +42%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $2 $0 +13%
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $2 $0 +12%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +17%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +40%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $4 +$4 +90%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Jordan leading at halftime? Jun 17 $2 $0 +12%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 +$2 +90%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 $0 +11%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +44%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $2 +$2 +114%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 $0 +17%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +34%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +62%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 +$4 +188%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +14%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY No 89¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 1h
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $2 1h
Spread: Panama (-1.5) BUY Ghana 90¢ $2 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $2 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $2 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 61¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 86¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 3h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $2 4h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 91¢ $2 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 81¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 68¢ $2 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 68¢ $2 4h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY No 94¢ $2 7h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $2 13h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $2 13h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $2 14h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 50¢ $2 14h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $2 14h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 88¢ $2 16h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 69¢ $2 16h
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 79¢ $2 16h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.04 · official $39.30 (match) · 3500 history records