Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:50:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
16 0x16fe…9496 sports 1616 markets active 0h ago coverage 59d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$514 (-5%) realized −$514 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%662W / 873L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day48.9pace
Fees−$141est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$141
14 days+$219
30 days+$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$250
other 14% +$78
crypto 1% −$22
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 128 +64.6% +49.0% 45% 45% +13.0%
≤30d 470 +18.3% +7.1% 41% 41% -6.4%
≤90d 1535 +9.4% -1.0% 43% 43% -6.8%
all 1535 +9.4% -1.0% 43% 43% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.0% 43% -6.8%
10% ← realistic here -10.5% 42% -15.7%
15% -19.1% 42% -23.8%
20% -27.1% 42% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$514
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses662 / 873
Est. fees paid−$141
Open positions12
Markets (closed)1535 / 1616
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day48.9
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 1535 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 52¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Rayan Cherki: 1+ shots Yes 33¢ 40¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+20%)
Sadio Mané: 2+ shots Yes 57¢ 58¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Nicolas Jackson: 2+ shots Yes 56¢ 48¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-14%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Yes 25¢ 26¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+6%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Over 33¢ 32¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Over 17¢ 16¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Yes 30¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 19¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Nicolas Jackson: 1+ goals Yes 16¢ 17¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Yes 31¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Sadio Mané: 1+ goals Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 488 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mohamed Salah: 1+ assists Jun 15 $2 +$7 +442%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$5 +102%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $9 −$8 -98%
Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Amadou Onana: 1+ goals Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Mohamed Salah: 2+ shots Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 +$5 +83%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $3 +$7 +226%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $4 +$5 +134%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $24 −$16 -67%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $7 −$1 -20%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $9 +$15 +162%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $4 +$6 +156%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 +$14 +388%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 15 $3 +$7 +200%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6 +$6 +98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $9 +$7 +74%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 +$7 +283%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4 +$5 +124%
Anthony Elanga: 1+ goals Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3 +$21 +697%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 +$6 +155%
Takefusa Kubo: 2+ shots Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Tijjani Reijnders: 2+ shots Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Cody Gakpo: 3+ shots Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Joshua Kimmich: 1+ assists Jun 14 $5 +$5 +119%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $2 +$7 +300%
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Daizen Maeda: 3+ shots Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$8 +180%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $1 +$14 +1116%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $2 +$10 +567%
Ayase Ueda: 3+ shots Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $4 +$6 +145%
Kai Havertz: 1+ assists Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Rayan Cherki: 1+ shots BUY Yes 33¢ $4 18m
Nicolas Jackson: 2+ shots BUY Yes 56¢ $4 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $3 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $3 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 25¢ $3 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Sadio Mané: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Nicolas Jackson: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Sadio Mané: 2+ shots BUY Yes 57¢ $3 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $7 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $10 21h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $1 21h
Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $3 23h
Mohamed Salah: 1+ assists BUY Yes 18¢ $2 23h
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists BUY Yes 28¢ $3 23h
Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists BUY Yes 27¢ $1 23h
Amadou Onana: 1+ goals BUY Yes 8¢ $1 23h
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $2 23h
Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $1 23h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $3 23h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $1 23h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 14¢ $3 23h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $4 23h
Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $2 23h
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $2 23h
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $2 23h
Mohamed Salah: 2+ shots BUY Yes 64¢ $4 23h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $8 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.08 · official $34.88 (match) · 3500 history records