Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:18:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16fc…b16b other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$100 (-36%) realized −$90 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt -97% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -97% what you keep after slip
Net edge-97%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$49
14 days−$96
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$15
world 25% −$35
tech 9% −$26
sports 7% −$21
politics 6% −$4
weather 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-97.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -95.0% -95.5% 0% 0% -99.5%
≤30d 8 -96.9% -97.2% 0% 0% -99.8%
≤90d 8 -96.9% -97.2% 0% 0% -99.8%
all 8 -96.9% -97.2% 0% 0% -99.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -97.2% 0% -99.8%
10% -97.4% 0% -99.8%
15% -97.7% 0% -99.8%
20% -97.9% 0% -99.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -97% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$12 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized−$90
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)8 / 14
History coverage16d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $70 +$20 (+41%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No $70 $35 −$35 (-50%)
Will Nuno Mendes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 28¢ $22 $30 +$7 (+33%)
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Yes 24¢ 19¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-19%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in June 2026? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -75%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.50T and 1.75T? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.42 · official $167.42 (match) · 40 history records