Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:35:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16fa…4ba6 other 127 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$384 (-9%) realized −$386 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%25W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$857now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$99
7 days−$159
14 days−$987
30 days−$938
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$460
other 46% −$863
world 3% −$54
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -9.2% -17.8% 24% 24% -32.4%
≤30d 101 -33.5% -39.8% 16% 16% -41.6%
≤90d 108 -19.1% -26.8% 19% 19% -24.7%
all 114 -13.5% -21.7% 22% 22% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 22% -22.6%
10% -29.2% 21% -30.0%
15% -36.1% 21% -36.7%
20% -42.3% 21% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$23 · ×2.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$857
Realized−$386
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses25 / 89
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions13
Markets (closed)114 / 127
History coverage111d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Conor McGregor 34¢ 35¢ $508 $523 +$14 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $60 $71 +$11 (+19%)
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 36¢ 48¢ $50 $66 +$16 (+32%)
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Card) Charles Johnson 27¢ 26¢ $63 $60 −$4 (-6%)
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweight, Prelims) Tahir Abdullayev 45¢ 42¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $60 $44 −$16 (-27%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-38%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-33%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-31%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-37%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $11 +$24 +206%
Marcus Thuram: 1+ goals Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $7 +$4 +58%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Jun 26 $6 −$6 -98%
Pedri: 1+ assists Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $56 −$55 -99%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France? Jun 26 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $5 +$31 +596%
Ritsu Dōan: 1+ assists Jun 26 $5 +$38 +747%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ assists Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $26 −$25 -98%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $25 +$24 +95%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Neither team to score first? Jun 24 $10 −$2 -15%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv Jun 23 $100 +$116 +117%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 22 $10 +$20 +197%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $110 −$109 -100%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $20 +$20 +97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $274 −$270 -98%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$32 +105%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$5 -53%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $30 +$31 +103%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $46 +$205 +444%
UFC Fight Night: Gillian Robertson vs. Amanda Lemos (Women's Strawweig Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Lithuania come in last place at Eurovision 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca BUY Charles Johnson 27¢ $65 1h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 45¢ $51 1h
Marcus Thuram: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $2 16h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists BUY Yes 24¢ $2 16h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL Yes 13¢ $11 16h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists BUY Yes 26¢ $6 22h
Pedri: 1+ assists BUY Yes 19¢ $5 22h
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $2 23h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $15 23h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $11 27h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $10 27h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $56 27h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 27h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 27h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 27h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 28h
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 35h
Ritsu Dōan: 1+ assists SELL Yes 100¢ $43 35h
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 37h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 37h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 37h
Ritsu Dōan: 1+ assists BUY Yes 11¢ $5 37h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $15 37h
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ assists BUY Yes 5¢ $5 37h
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $20 37h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 38h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists BUY Yes 32¢ $10 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $15 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $61 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 99¢ $49 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $856.93 · official $856.96 (match) · 292 history records