Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:08:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x16f9…99e3
politics · 7 markets active 588d ago
0.0score
+$5,924,592 +189%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5,924,592 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,924,592
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage8d
Avg bet$448,646
Trades / day442.8
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 15 $4,087 +$2,299 +56%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Nov 12 $262,827 +$745,433 +284%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Nov 12 $528,996 +$1,383,208 +262%
Will a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency? Nov 07 $143,505 −$143,505 -100%
Will a Republican win the popular vote and the Presidency? Nov 07 $158,228 +$271,353 +172%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $13,100 +$6,901 +53%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $2,029,781 +$3,658,904 +180%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 100% +$5,924,592
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 62¢ $144,525 588d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 62¢ $18 588d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 62¢ $18 588d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 62¢ $1,636 588d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 62¢ $17 588d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 588d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 62¢ $232 588d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 62¢ $28 588d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 62¢ $18 588d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 62¢ $29 588d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 62¢ $21 588d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 62¢ $7 588d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 588d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 62¢ $14 588d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 62¢ $29 588d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 62¢ $28 588d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 62¢ $17 588d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 62¢ $17 588d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 62¢ $143 588d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 62¢ $28 588d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 62¢ $18 588d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 62¢ $17 588d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 62¢ $73 588d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 62¢ $29 588d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 62¢ $17 588d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 62¢ $17 588d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 62¢ $209 588d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 62¢ $28 588d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 588d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 62¢ $17 588d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +86%
net ROI/market (all)+107.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 7 +129.4% +107.5% 86% 86% +161.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover442.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +107.5% 86% +161.2%
10% +87.7% 86% +136.2%
15% ← realistic here +69.6% 86% +113.3%
20% +52.9% 86% +92.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records