Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:57:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16f8…31e9 sports 1074 markets active 0h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,049 (-4%) realized −$1,014 · open −$35
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%506W / 559L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$166est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days−$55
14 days+$147
30 days+$219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$561
other 12% −$228
crypto 3% −$44
world 0% −$47
politics 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -2.1% -11.4% 44% 44% -11.7%
≤30d 123 +7.6% -2.6% 50% 49% -4.5%
≤90d 458 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 50% -10.5%
all 1065 -6.5% -15.4% 48% 47% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 47% -12.5%
10% -23.5% 46% -20.9%
15% -30.9% 44% -28.5%
20% -37.7% 39% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$22 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,014
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses506 / 559
Est. fees paid−$166
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1065 / 1074
History coverage146d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1065 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Paper Rex 56¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $51 +$62 +121%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $24 −$24 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 19 $35 −$34 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $18 −$18 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $46 −$45 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $37 +$34 +94%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 +$27 +55%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $34 +$51 +152%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $36 +$36 +101%
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -99%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $61 +$72 +119%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $36 −$36 -99%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$60 +119%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $49 +$53 +109%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $29 +$27 +93%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $41 +$28 +70%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $47 −$46 -99%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 16 $41 −$3 -7%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $28 −$27 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $40 +$75 +188%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $25 +$57 +233%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $99 −$98 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $24 −$24 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $46 −$45 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $30 +$31 +101%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $47 +$38 +82%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $40 −$39 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $60 −$59 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $18 +$93 +503%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $76 −$75 -99%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $30 +$20 +67%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $43 +$43 +101%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $30 +$18 +60%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $28 +$53 +194%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $40 +$22 +55%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $34 −$33 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $40 +$34 +86%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $40 −$39 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $35 −$34 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $49 +$45 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 99¢ $112 14m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 44¢ $51 52m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 56¢ $35 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $24 12h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 39¢ $31 13h
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? BUY Yes 37¢ $35 14h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $18 14h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $46 14h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 BUY Over $15 15h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 20¢ $20 15h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 16h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $25 18h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $37 18h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 85¢ $77 18h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $50 18h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 39¢ $34 21h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes $15 23h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY 32¢ $36 23h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 42¢ $31 24h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $36 38h
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? BUY Yes 51¢ $41 39h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 41¢ $39 41h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $61 43h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $36 44h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $57 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $29 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $49 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $69 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 58¢ $41 2d
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 1720 history records