Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:28:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
16 0x16f5…d46f finance 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 193d
RISKYcopy with care finance specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$62 (-11%) realized −$63 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$18
14 days+$18
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 53% −$78
other 42% +$14
politics 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +16.9% +5.8% 100% 100% +5.8%
≤30d 1 +16.9% +5.8% 100% 100% +5.8%
≤90d 3 -27.2% -34.1% 67% 33% -32.8%
all 4 -17.3% -25.2% 75% 50% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 50% -23.5%
10% -32.3% 0% -30.8%
15% -38.9% 0% -37.5%
20% -44.9% 0% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$97 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$158
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage193d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $127 $127 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 78¢ 80¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 18 $108 +$18 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? May 05 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 02 $96 +$1 +2%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 08 $112 +$14 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $127 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $126 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $108 37d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? BUY No 80¢ $97 62d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY No 98¢ $96 93d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 78¢ $30 182d
Maduro out in 2025? SELL No 95¢ $30 182d
Maduro out in 2025? BUY No 88¢ $112 193d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.23 · official $158.23 (match) · 192 history records