Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:59:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x16f5…c651
sports · 292 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$228 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$227 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$49
Realized−$227
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses147 / 143
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)290 / 292
History coverage86d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 2 History 290 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Gen.G 75¢ 88¢ $42 $49 +$7 (+16%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster 21¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $13 $0 +1%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $12 +$1 +13%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $465 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $1 +$1 +88%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Bucks (-6.5) Apr 05 $1 +$1 +79%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $1 $0 +25%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Mar 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Kansas Jayhawks vs. BYU Cougars (W) Mar 31 $48 −$48 -100%
Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5 Mar 30 $10 +$1 +6%
Stars vs. Flyers Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5) Mar 30 $60 −$23 -38%
Spread: Nuggets (-12.5) Mar 30 $10 −$3 -26%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-16.5) Mar 30 $4 +$4 +96%
Kings vs. Nets Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Hornets (-2.5) Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Celtics vs. Hornets: O/U 216.5 Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Celtics vs. Hornets Mar 30 $8 −$3 -40%
Spread: Clippers (-17.5) Mar 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Predators vs. Lightning Mar 30 $10 +$6 +54%
Washington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets Mar 30 $1 +$2 +170%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex - Game 4 Winner Mar 30 $10 +$6 +58%
Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays Mar 29 $1 +$1 +70%
Chicago White Sox vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Mar 29 $41 −$41 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Mar 29 $19 +$13 +68%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playof Mar 29 $14 −$2 -18%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Mar 29 $2 $0 +12%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 29 $5 −$1 -12%
Map Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5) Mar 29 $7 +$11 +163%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 29 $6 +$3 +54%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 29 $9 +$11 +122%
Valorant: REIGNITE FOXX vs Fennel - Map 2 Winner Mar 29 $3 +$4 +170%
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-6.5) Mar 29 $1 +$1 +112%
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats Mar 29 $10 +$3 +27%
O/U 3.5 Rounds Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 75% −$210
other 24% −$8
crypto 2% −$10
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 83¢ $0 1m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 84¢ $0 1m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 66¢ $0 5m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 65¢ $1 5m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 67¢ $0 5m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 67¢ $0 7m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 67¢ $0 7m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 89¢ $0 11m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 87¢ $0 12m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 89¢ $0 12m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 89¢ $0 12m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 83¢ $0 13m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 83¢ $0 13m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 81¢ $1 13m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 78¢ $0 13m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 78¢ $1 13m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 76¢ $4 14m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 67¢ $0 19m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 62¢ $1 20m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 71¢ $10 26m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 79¢ $5 32m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 78¢ $2 32m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 79¢ $2 33m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 77¢ $0 33m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 78¢ $0 33m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 78¢ $0 33m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 78¢ $0 33m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 78¢ $0 33m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 78¢ $0 33m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 78¢ $0 33m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -15.4% -23.5% 75% 33% -9.8%
≤30d 15 -19.8% -27.5% 67% 33% -10.0%
≤90d 290 -4.1% -13.2% 51% 48% -17.0%
all 290 -4.1% -13.2% 51% 48% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 48% -17.0%
10% -21.5% 46% -24.9%
15% -29.1% 43% -32.2%
20% -36.0% 38% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.00 · official $49.00 (match) · 1191 history records