Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:10:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x16f4…d1e0
world · 32 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage255d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 1 History 31 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 60¢ 56¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $46 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $42 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $48 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $22 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $25 −$1 -4%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $2 $0 -3%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 17 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 17 $5 $0 +3%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 13 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $26 $0 -2%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 12 $2 $0 -28%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 07 $7 −$1 -8%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 07 $6 $0 +2%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 07 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 06 $10 $0 -4%
Will Marian Vanghelie be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Oct 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Oct 05 $17 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 04 $6 $0 -3%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 04 $9 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $26 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 41% $0
other 20% −$1
politics 17% $0
sports 14% $0
crypto 7% $0
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 60¢ $11 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $46 3h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $46 5h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $42 4d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $42 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $42 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $24 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $17 5d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $22 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $22 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $34 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $6 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $40 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 42¢ $3 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 42¢ $20 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $25 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $47 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $47 6d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 176d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 177d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $21 237d
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? SELL No 95¢ $5 237d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $21 238d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $23 238d
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? BUY No 93¢ $5 241d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 93¢ $5 242d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 92¢ $5 242d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.5% -9.9% 43% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 7 -0.5% -9.9% 43% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 7 -0.5% -9.9% 43% 0% -9.7%
all 31 -1.3% -10.7% 45% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.99 · official $9.99 (match) · 138 history records