Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:46:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
16 0x16f3…e1ee sports 458 markets active 9h ago coverage 14d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$285 (+1%) realized +$291 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%221W / 233L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day75.6pace
Fees−$295est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$476
7 days+$47
14 days+$264
30 days+$268
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$351
other 3% −$75
politics 0% −$31
world 0% +$26
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 179 +18.7% +7.4% 40% 39% -9.0%
≤30d 454 +10.4% -0.1% 49% 47% -8.2%
≤90d 454 +10.4% -0.1% 49% 47% -8.2%
all 454 +10.4% -0.1% 49% 47% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover75.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.1% 47% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -9.7% 47% -17.0%
15% -18.4% 46% -25.0%
20% -26.4% 42% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$39 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$172
Realized+$291
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses221 / 233
Est. fees paid−$295
Open positions2
Markets (closed)454 / 458
History coverage14d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day75.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 454 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $132 $133 +$1 (+1%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ 34¢ $46 $39 −$7 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 229 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $42 +$58 +138%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida Jun 17 $2 +$4 +178%
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $44 +$44 +100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $134 +$66 +49%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $186 −$186 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $147 −$147 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $28 −$27 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $83 −$81 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $116 −$114 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 +$85 +567%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $70 +$180 +257%
ITF Tulsa: Alex Rybakov vs Bruno Kuzuhara Jun 17 $45 −$44 -98%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano Jun 16 $66 +$134 +204%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Team to Take First Corner Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $58 −$58 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei Jun 16 $35 +$65 +188%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $373 −$145 -39%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $37 −$37 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $57 −$36 -63%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $138 +$10 +7%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Daniel Michalski Jun 16 $110 −$108 -98%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch Jun 16 $176 −$79 -45%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $61 +$139 +226%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +113%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $94 +$106 +113%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $81 +$119 +146%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $13 −$3 -23%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $1 +$2 +317%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $176 −$176 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $87 −$87 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $36 +$264 +733%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $47 −$47 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 15 $131 +$169 +129%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $12 +$11 +92%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $159 −$159 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $85 +$128 +150%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $105 +$145 +138%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$68 +218%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $151 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $35 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $147 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $28 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 27¢ $83 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $116 8h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Joaquin Aguilar 36¢ $2 9h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 67¢ $102 9h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 67¢ $32 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 42¢ $11 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 42¢ $29 9h
ITF Tulsa: Alex Rybakov vs Bruno Kuzuhara BUY Alex Rybakov 44¢ $45 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 42¢ $2 9h
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 31¢ $31 9h
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $44 9h
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 32¢ $32 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $0 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $52 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $16 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $2 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 15¢ $0 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 15¢ $15 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $13 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $1 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $1 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $51 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: Team to Take First Corner BUY Iraq 23¢ $23 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 41¢ $18 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $8 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 29¢ $58 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.52 · official $170.41 (match) · 1300 history records