Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:02:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
16 0x16f2…8ac9 sports 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$26 (+5%) realized +$31 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%14W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$78
7 days+$78
14 days+$84
30 days+$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$19
world 17% +$56
other 7% −$3
finance 4% −$9
politics 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1566.7% +1407.9% 100% 100% +1407.9%
≤30d 10 +149.8% +126.0% 60% 60% +58.2%
≤90d 23 +39.7% +26.4% 48% 43% +2.6%
all 28 +35.9% +22.9% 50% 46% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.9% 46% -3.2%
10% +11.2% 39% -12.4%
15% +0.4% 39% -20.9%
20% -9.4% 32% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +89% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$15 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses14 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)28 / 31
History coverage138d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 94¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 24¢ 24¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 14¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $5 +$78 +1567%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $13 −$13 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 09 $11 +$19 +165%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 03 $13 −$13 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Jun 03 $15 +$2 +16%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships May 26 $13 +$7 +57%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 21 $6 +$3 +52%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $10 +$4 +42%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? May 13 $10 +$4 +41%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? May 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? May 05 $9 +$1 +12%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 22 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 22 $7 +$4 +60%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 15 $7 −$7 -100%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Apr 11 $6 +$1 +10%
Celtics vs. Hornets Apr 11 $25 +$23 +92%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars Mar 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Heat vs. 76ers Mar 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Spurs vs. Pistons Feb 25 $10 +$11 +113%
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Feb 22 $61 −$61 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stag Feb 22 $19 +$19 +104%
Knicks vs. Celtics Feb 18 $30 −$30 -100%
UFC 325: Finney vs. Malkoun (Middleweight, Prelims) Feb 07 $79 +$60 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $14 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $39 1h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $13 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $5 9d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $11 15d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY OG 26¢ $13 23d
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships BUY paiN 63¢ $13 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY No 86¢ $15 28d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Hanwha Life Esports 70¢ $10 34d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 35¢ $5 34d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 36d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 65¢ $6 42d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? BUY No 39¢ $6 43d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Lakers 14¢ $5 43d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? BUY No 89¢ $9 57d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? BUY No 84¢ $10 57d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Invictus Gaming 57¢ $9 64d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 62¢ $7 64d
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY JD Gaming 64¢ $7 68d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY No 71¢ $10 68d
Celtics vs. Hornets BUY Celtics 52¢ $25 81d
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars BUY Houston Cougars 60¢ $8 86d
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? BUY No 91¢ $6 86d
Heat vs. 76ers BUY Heat 46¢ $15 113d
Spurs vs. Pistons BUY Spurs 47¢ $10 115d
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $16 116d
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, BUY Hernandez 72¢ $61 119d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stag BUY Natus Vincere 49¢ $19 119d
Knicks vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 61¢ $30 129d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.63 · official $52.63 (match) · 58 history records