Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
16 0x16f1…2cff other 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$440per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$3
politics 30% −$2
world 18% −$3
crypto 16% −$3
economics 3% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 16 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 16 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage65d
Avg bet$440
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $1,173 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $1,160 −$3 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,118 −$1 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $49 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,162 −$3 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 16 $1,105 $0 +0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,039 −$2 -0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Apr 20 $112 $0 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential Apr 20 $26 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $116 $0 -0%
Will Spencer Fano be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft? Apr 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $25 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 13 $167 $0 -0%
Will Kim Moon-soo win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electio Apr 13 $26 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $83 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 20m
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,120 28m
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 35m
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,083 46m
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 54m
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,156 1h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 1h
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,123 1h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $892 1h
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $36 1h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $225 2h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,118 2h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $49 20h
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $1,159 20h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $9 20h
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $1,112 21h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $22 21h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $18 21h
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $19 21h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $770 21h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $268 22h
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $32 22h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,039 22h
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o SELL No 100¢ $111 58d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $51 58d
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY No 100¢ $72 58d
Will Roy Barreras win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential SELL No 100¢ $15 58d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.29 · official $15.29 (match) · 55 history records