Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:14:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16f1…d83c crypto 336 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,628 (-3%) realized −$1,628 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate90%304W / 32L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day26.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$244
7 days+$244
14 days+$244
30 days+$244
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,738
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +6.1% -4.0% 82% 76% -1.8%
≤30d 17 +6.1% -4.0% 82% 76% -1.8%
≤90d 336 -2.4% -11.7% 90% 14% -12.0%
all 336 -2.4% -11.7% 90% 14% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 14% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 5% -20.4%
15% -27.9% 1% -28.1%
20% -34.9% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$158 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$1,628
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses304 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)336 / 336
History coverage64d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day26.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 336 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $200 +$46 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 19 $102 +$20 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $202 +$32 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $103 −$102 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $304 +$37 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $104 +$19 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 19 $203 +$31 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $104 +$46 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 19 $304 +$87 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $305 +$80 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $411 +$163 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $149 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $52 +$10 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 27 $101 −$22 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Apr 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Apr 27 $101 +$10 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Apr 27 $102 +$6 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Apr 27 $50 +$5 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Apr 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Apr 27 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 27 $101 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 26 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 26 $101 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 26 $50 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 26 $151 −$70 -46%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 26 $101 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Apr 26 $56 −$56 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 26 $150 +$22 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Apr 26 $156 +$25 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 26 $101 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 26 $151 +$5 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 26 $50 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 26 $50 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 26 $50 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 26 $150 +$5 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Apr 26 $105 +$22 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 26 $101 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 26 $151 +$5 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 26 $50 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Apr 26 $51 +$3 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 26 $101 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 26 $50 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 25 $50 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 25 $101 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Apr 25 $50 +$3 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 25 $50 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $23 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $49 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $49 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $49 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $49 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $34 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $49 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $12 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.88 · official $0.00 · 2059 history records