Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:20:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16ee…6b7e world 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 269d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate32%10W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$1
politics 27% $0
other 14% −$1
crypto 7% $0
culture 7% $0
sports 5% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.5% -9.0% 43% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 9 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 9 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.2%
all 31 -0.1% -9.6% 32% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

269d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses10 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage269d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $32 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $33 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $29 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $23 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $28 +$1 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $28 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 -7%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 07 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Dec 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 12 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $28 −$1 -3%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 11 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 07 $28 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 06 $28 $0 -0%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 28 $29 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 27 $29 $0 +0%
Will Adelita Grijalva win AZ-07 by between 35% and 40%? Sep 27 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $29 $0 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $29 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 26 $29 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 24 $29 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $4 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $103K in September? Sep 23 $28 $0 +1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 22 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 66¢ $28 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 66¢ $5 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 66¢ $32 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $25 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $25 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $33 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $33 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $14 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $15 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $23 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $23 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $23 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $23 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $29 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $28 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $12 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $16 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $28 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 9d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $27 102d
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $1 182d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 228 history records