Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:11:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
16 0x16eb…1575 world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 331d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$13 (+1%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%18W / 18L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% +$8
other 22% +$1
culture 20% $0
sports 15% +$2
politics 8% $0
finance 3% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.6% -11.0% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 10 +2.0% -7.7% 40% 0% -7.3%
≤90d 12 +1.8% -7.9% 50% 0% -7.6%
all 36 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 0% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 0% -8.6%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.3%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.3%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×8.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×21.47 per $1 lost it wins $21.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

331d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses18 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage331d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 23 $13 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $59 +$6 +10%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $41 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $31 +$2 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 29 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $31 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $1 $0 +7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $33 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $31 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 15 $180 +$1 +1%
Jonas Valančiūnas: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Mar 13 $177 +$2 +1%
Will Delroy Lindo win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 12 $196 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Aug 02 $4 $0 +1%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 02 $2 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 02 $1 $0 -6%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 02 $38 $0 +1%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 02 $8 $0 +3%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Aug 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Aug 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 01 $34 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 01 $8 $0 -0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 01 $9 $0 -1%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Aug 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 31 $38 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Udachne before August? Jul 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 30 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $38 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $38 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 30¢ $12 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $13 2d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $42 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $41 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $41 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $41 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $24 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $18 24d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $35 24d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $35 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $33 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $24 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $7 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $31 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $31 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $30 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $23 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $7 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $15 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 2¢ $1 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 1¢ $1 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $24 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $33 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $31 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $25 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records