Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:44:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16e9…6e22 crypto 164 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$39 (-3%) realized −$37 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate86%139W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day72.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$67
other 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (72 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 162 -5.0% -14.1% 86% 22% -13.8%
≤30d 162 -5.0% -14.1% 86% 22% -13.8%
≤90d 162 -5.0% -14.1% 86% 22% -13.8%
all 162 -5.0% -14.1% 86% 22% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 22% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 4% -22.1%
15% -29.8% 3% -29.6%
20% -36.7% 2% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$37
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses139 / 23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)162 / 164
History coverage2d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day72.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Down 91¢ 94¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+3%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Down 91¢ 77¢ $18 $15 −$3 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 28 $11 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$2 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $23 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $25 +$2 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 28 $25 +$2 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $22 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $25 +$2 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 28 $24 +$2 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 28 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 28 $24 +$2 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $28 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $27 +$3 +10%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 28 $9 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 28 $23 +$4 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 28 $19 +$2 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 28 $18 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 27 $17 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 27 $17 −$16 -99%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 27 $14 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 27 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $13 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 27 $18 −$17 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 27 $14 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 27 $16 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 27 $16 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $15 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 27 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 27 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $15 +$2 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $12 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $13 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $14 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $14 +$1 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $12 +$1 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 27 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 27 $13 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $11 +$1 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 27 $14 +$1 +10%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 27 $14 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $18 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $23 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $26 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $24 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $24 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $28 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $27 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $9 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $23 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $19 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $18 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $17 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $17 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $18 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $13 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $14 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.02 · official $40.13 · 412 history records