Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:09:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16e7…3925 sports 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$364 (+3%) realized +$369 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%42W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day66.1pace
Fees−$135est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$942now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$357
other 4% +$126
world 2% −$216
tech 2% −$13
crypto 1% −$141
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -15.5% -23.5% 44% 44% -15.2%
≤30d 96 -15.5% -23.5% 44% 44% -15.2%
≤90d 96 -15.5% -23.5% 44% 44% -15.2%
all 96 -15.5% -23.5% 44% 44% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.5% 44% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -30.8% 42% -23.3%
15% -37.5% 35% -30.7%
20% -43.6% 27% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$76 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$942
Realized+$369
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses42 / 54
Est. fees paid−$135
Open positions5
Markets (closed)96 / 101
History coverage5d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day66.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jordan 56¢ 56¢ $308 $305 −$3 (-1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 66¢ 66¢ $264 $264 +$0 (+0%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 52¢ 52¢ $156 $157 +$1 (+1%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $116 $119 +$3 (+2%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 41¢ 38¢ $102 $96 −$6 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $216 −$216 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $229 +$87 +38%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $114 +$106 +93%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $115 +$65 +56%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $198 +$102 +51%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $22 −$21 -96%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $150 −$150 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $115 −$115 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $70 −$70 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $56 −$56 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $54 −$52 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $147 −$145 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $52 +$198 +376%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $152 +$106 +70%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $88 +$92 +104%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $155 +$95 +61%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $216 −$216 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $217 +$133 +61%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$169 +334%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $192 +$57 +30%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $114 +$86 +75%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $130 +$56 +43%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $100 +$100 +100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $154 +$46 +30%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $110 +$70 +64%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $40 +$60 +150%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $29 $0 -0%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $102 −$101 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $160 +$95 +60%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $198 +$190 +96%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $67 −$66 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $112 +$88 +79%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $64 −$64 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $84 −$84 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $134 51m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $22 52m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $33 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $23 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $4 58m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $185 59m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $11 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $36 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $19 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $56 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 56¢ $312 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $119 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $3 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $3 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $6 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $2 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $90 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $104 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $9 5h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $220 7h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $180 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 17¢ $1 7h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $316 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $300 7h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 13.5 Total Corners SELL Over 29¢ $1 7h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 11¢ $22 8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 73¢ $180 8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 73¢ $3 8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 18¢ $22 8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $6 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $942.30 · official $942.30 (match) · 337 history records