Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:33:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16e2…5f01 world 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,642 (-51%) realized −$767 · open −$875
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,076per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,876now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 100% −$1,138
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-59.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -55.3% -59.5% 0% 0% -59.5%
≤30d 1 -55.3% -59.5% 0% 0% -59.5%
≤90d 1 -55.3% -59.5% 0% 0% -59.5%
all 1 -55.3% -59.5% 0% 0% -59.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.5% 0% -59.5%
10% -63.4% 0% -63.4%
15% -66.9% 0% -66.9%
20% -70.2% 0% -70.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
9.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$263 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$1,876
Realized−$767
Unrealized−$875
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1 / 3
History coverage19d
Avg bet$1,076
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $2,172 $1,504 −$668 (-31%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $579 $372 −$207 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $476 −$263 -55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $80 1h
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $100 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $531 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1,269 1h
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $80 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $213 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $24 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $150 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $150 6d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $150 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $100 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $150 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $30 18d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $100 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $56 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $94 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $50 19d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 19d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $19 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,875.67 · official $1,875.67 (match) · 30 history records