Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:09:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
16 0x16e1…5536 other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$170 (+2%) realized −$699 · open +$869
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$387per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$10,295now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$1,009
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -7.7% -16.5% 67% 50% +14.0%
≤30d 6 -7.7% -16.5% 67% 50% +14.0%
≤90d 6 -7.7% -16.5% 67% 50% +14.0%
all 6 -7.7% -16.5% 67% 50% +14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 50% +14.0%
10% -24.5% 33% +3.1%
15% -31.8% 17% -6.8%
20% -38.5% 17% -16.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +26% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$30 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.34 per $1 lost it wins $3.34
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$10,295
Realized−$699
Unrealized+$869
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Open positions20
Markets (closed)6 / 26
History coverage3d
Avg bet$387
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 82¢ 83¢ $5,000 $5,033 +$33 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 61¢ 76¢ $3,413 $4,272 +$859 (+25%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $322 $310 −$12 (-4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $115 $116 +$1 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 48¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 52¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 29¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $36 $37 +$1 (+1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 39¢ 36¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $122 +$114 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $151 +$49 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $203 +$38 +18%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $2,978 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 82¢ $5,026 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $9 1h
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 1h
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 1h
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 52¢ $51 1h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $111 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 8h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 9h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 9h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 9h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $31 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 9h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 9h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 36¢ $37 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $116 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $203 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $151 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $203 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $152 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $122 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $329 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,294.73 · official $10,295.29 (match) · 37 history records