Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:45:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
16 0x16e0…52a6 sports 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge
Total PnL +$10 (+4%) realized +$8 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate62%21W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$21
14 days+$25
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$3
other 27% +$15
culture 5% +$1
world 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +54.1% +39.4% 56% 56% +11.3%
≤30d 19 +49.9% +35.6% 58% 58% -3.2%
≤90d 21 +37.9% +24.8% 52% 52% -8.2%
all 34 +23.4% +11.6% 62% 53% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.6% 53% -7.5%
10% +1.0% 53% -16.3%
15% -8.8% 41% -24.4%
20% -17.7% 29% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses21 / 13
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage97d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $17 +$9 +54%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $2 +$4 +206%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $10 +$5 +48%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1 $0 -20%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 +$7 +364%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $2 +$2 +93%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $13 +$13 +97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $3 +$6 +194%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $10 +$3 +32%
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $7 −$1 -17%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $5 +$3 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $4 +$1 +41%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $105 −$11 -10%
Will Russia win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $11 −$6 -51%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $3 +$1 +36%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Mar 18 $1 +$1 +63%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -69%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $2 +$1 +28%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $2 +$1 +29%
Chelsea FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Visual Effects at the 98th Academy Mar 16 $1 $0 +7%
Will All the Empty Rooms win Best Documentary Short Film at the 98th A Mar 16 $1 $0 +40%
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 16 $2 $0 +6%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $3 +$1 +26%
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $2 +$1 +26%
Will Frankenstein win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Mar 15 $2 $0 +7%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $17 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 53¢ $25 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $2 29h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 29h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 99¢ $15 29h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 66¢ $10 33h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 11¢ $1 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 13¢ $1 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 52¢ $4 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 26¢ $2 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 51¢ $2 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $13 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 99¢ $9 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 33¢ $3 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 68¢ $2 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 32¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $2 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 58¢ $11 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 31¢ $6 6d
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 37¢ $6 6d
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $7 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.27 · official $12.21 (match) · 73 history records