Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:10:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
16 0x16e0…0893 sports 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9 (+4%) realized +$15 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%52W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$9
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$1
other 29% +$6
world 2% −$5
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 +11.2% +0.6% 55% 51% -5.1%
≤30d 94 +7.4% -2.8% 55% 51% -6.8%
≤90d 94 +7.4% -2.8% 55% 51% -6.8%
all 94 +7.4% -2.8% 55% 51% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 51% -6.8%
10% -12.1% 47% -15.7%
15% -20.6% 46% -23.8%
20% -28.4% 40% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses52 / 42
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)94 / 99
History coverage8d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 30¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-44%)
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Over 58¢ 43¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-26%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 48¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-28%)
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Over 61¢ 29¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-52%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 22¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +307%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $3 +$4 +140%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $6 −$3 -49%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +343%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $3 +$1 +48%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$3 +86%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $2 $0 +21%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 +$3 +82%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +114%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $2 +$1 +52%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 14 $2 $0 -22%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 14 $3 $0 -14%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +55%
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Zongyu Li Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$2 +109%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $3 −$2 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 +$2 +89%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$4 -80%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $2 +$1 +42%
ITF Zagreb: Kajsa Rinaldo Persson vs Anna-Lena Friedsam Jun 13 $1 +$1 +119%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $2 +$2 +114%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $2 +$2 +105%
Tucuman: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Nicolas Kicker Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 13 $2 +$1 +52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
ITF Tokyo: Mayuka Aikawa vs Ikumi Yamazaki Jun 13 $2 +$2 +79%
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Sato vs Kayo Nishimura Jun 13 $2 +$1 +44%
Osos de Manati vs. Vaqueros de Bayamon Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 +$2 +111%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -52%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 12 $2 +$2 +96%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
ITF Los Angeles: Lily Taylor vs Kaitlyn Carnicella Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $2 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $3 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $3 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $4 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $3 22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 22h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 22h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $3 22h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 43¢ $3 22h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $3 22h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 22h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $6 22h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 25h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $2 25h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 25h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $4 26h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $3 28h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $3 28h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $4 28h
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 46h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 82¢ $2 46h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 21¢ $1 46h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $4 46h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $7 46h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $7 46h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 61¢ $1 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 59¢ $2 2d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 70¢ $3 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.82 · official $7.82 (match) · 169 history records