Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:21:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16de…fcd7 crypto 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 552d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$34 (-2%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate53%23W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$19
14 days−$19
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% $0
crypto 45% −$90
other 6% +$2
sports 2% +$11
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.6% -8.9% 57% 57% -21.6%
≤30d 7 +0.6% -8.9% 57% 57% -21.6%
≤90d 27 -24.8% -31.9% 37% 37% -33.2%
all 43 -12.1% -20.5% 53% 28% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 28% -13.2%
10% -28.1% 23% -21.5%
15% -35.1% 23% -29.1%
20% -41.4% 21% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$21 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

552d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses23 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage552d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $24 −$9 -36%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$22 +84%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 24 $36 −$36 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 24 $22 +$20 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 24 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 09 $48 −$46 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 09 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 09 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 09 $57 −$30 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 09 $101 −$8 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 09 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 09 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 09 $25 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 09 $42 +$65 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 09 $36 +$72 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 09 $31 +$26 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 09 $11 −$10 -94%
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 09 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 09 $33 −$32 -97%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 09 $10 +$7 +66%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO1) - ACL X ESL Challenger C May 09 $3 +$3 +109%
Warriors vs. Celtics Apr 27 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Russia capture Zarichne by February 28, 2026? Mar 18 $13 $0 +3%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Jan 20 $18 $0 +0%
Bucks vs. Knicks Dec 05 $16 +$6 +36%
XRP Up or Down - December 4, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Dec 05 $107 +$103 +96%
Will MrBeast hit 102.5 billion views by December 31? Nov 27 $16 $0 -1%
Will Trump talk to Ahmed Al Shara in November? Nov 20 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Jupiter proposal to burn 130,000,000 $JUP pass? Nov 07 $16 $0 +2%
Taylor Swift's "The Life of a Showgirl" debuts at #1? Oct 14 $16 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. national debt hit $37 trillion in 2025? Sep 03 $16 $0 +1%
Zohran Mamdani gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York C Jul 14 $16 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win The Bronx in the New York City Mayoral Democrati Jul 03 $16 $0 +2%
Will Trzaskowski or Nawrocki win the diaspora vote? Jun 19 $15 $0 +2%
Will Liverpool qualify for the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League? May 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be the Democratic Party of Korea's candidate for pr May 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 20 $14 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 26 $814 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 20m
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 20m
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 20m
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 20m
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $48 22m
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $8 34m
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $18 34m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $42 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $12 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 137 history records