Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:51:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16dd…3256 crypto 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 597d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate88%28W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% −$12
crypto 41% +$2
other 2% −$14
sports 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 7 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 18 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 32 -1.9% -11.2% 88% 9% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 9% -10.5%
10% -19.7% 9% -19.1%
15% -27.5% 6% -26.9%
20% -34.6% 3% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$8 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

597d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses28 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage597d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 15? Jun 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? Jun 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? Jun 09 $29 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? Jun 05 $29 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 27? Jun 03 $29 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 22? May 27 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 16? May 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 14? May 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 13? May 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 22? May 12 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 17? Apr 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on April 15? Apr 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 10? Apr 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on April 8? Apr 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 28? Apr 07 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 26? Mar 27 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 21? Mar 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 27? Mar 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on February 11? Feb 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 7? Feb 09 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 6? Feb 09 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 4? Feb 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on January 31? Feb 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November? Jan 22 $10 $0 +1%
Bucks vs. Pelicans Nov 14 $8 +$2 +25%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 26 $11 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 12 $381 −$12 -3%
Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-02? Nov 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? Nov 04 $7 +$5 +70%
Will JD Vance say "fake news" during the Joe Rogan podcast? Nov 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Giants vs. Steelers Oct 31 $11 +$4 +39%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 28 $545 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? BUY Yes 98¢ $29 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? BUY Yes 99¢ $29 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $29 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 25d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 32d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 33d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 36d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 60d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on April 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 63d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 68d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on April 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 70d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 81d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 84d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 89d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 27? BUY No 100¢ $29 111d
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on February 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 127d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 7? BUY No 98¢ $15 130d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 6? BUY No 100¢ $27 131d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 4? BUY No 100¢ $28 132d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on January 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 137d
Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November? BUY No 99¢ $10 214d
Bucks vs. Pelicans BUY Bucks 80¢ $8 507d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 516d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY No 44¢ $3 589d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY No 44¢ $6 589d
Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-02? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 592d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.00 · official $29.00 (match) · 72 history records