Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:02:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16dd…27cc world 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$30 (-18%) realized −$26 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% −$14
crypto 9% −$15
politics 6% $0
sports 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-41.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -3.7% -12.9% 50% 25% -12.4%
≤30d 12 -35.8% -41.9% 33% 17% -37.0%
≤90d 12 -35.8% -41.9% 33% 17% -37.0%
all 12 -35.8% -41.9% 33% 17% -37.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.9% 17% -37.0%
10% -47.5% 17% -43.0%
15% -52.5% 8% -48.5%
20% -57.2% 0% -53.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -83% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$26
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage20d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $66 $65 −$1 (-1%)
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 22 $5 $0 -8%
Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Jun 22 $15 +$5 +36%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 22 $5 +$1 +26%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $5 $0 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Bilytske by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $5 −$3 -69%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 22 $20 −$6 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $66 1h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $5 2h
Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $6 2h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? SELL Yes 85¢ $20 2h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 55¢ $6 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $5 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $5 2h
Will Russia capture Bilytske by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 2h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $14 2h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 42¢ $5 15d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 20d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $15 20d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 20d
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $5 20d
Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 20d
Will Russia capture Bilytske by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $5 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $5 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $5 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.19 · official $72.19 (match) · 26 history records