Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:27:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16dd…84fa crypto 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$133 (-14%) realized −$133 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate26%12W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$74
7 days−$74
14 days−$224
30 days−$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$225
politics 3% −$29
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-45.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -40.1% -45.8% 24% 21% -27.5%
≤30d 45 -36.6% -42.6% 27% 24% -38.8%
≤90d 47 -39.2% -45.0% 26% 23% -41.3%
all 47 -39.2% -45.0% 26% 23% -41.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.0% 23% -41.3%
10% -50.2% 19% -46.9%
15% -55.1% 19% -52.1%
20% -59.5% 19% -56.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$14 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$133
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses12 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage64d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$9 -65%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $39 −$12 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$15 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$49 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $29 −$23 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$10 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$82 +319%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$17 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 07 $61 −$59 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 07 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 07 $84 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 07 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 07 $16 +$20 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 07 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 06 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 06 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 06 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 06 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 06 $26 +$43 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 06 $17 +$28 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 06 $32 −$32 -100%
Will voter turnout be 74–77% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary elect Apr 13 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $9 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $9 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $4 40m
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $24 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $24 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $14 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $7 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $21 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $21 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 102 history records