Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:53:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16da…05c0 other 235 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (481 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,478 (-4%) realized −$1,197 · open −$281
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate70%102W / 43L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day480.5pace
Fees−$144est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$11,095now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% +$478
world 27% +$839
sports 15% −$143
politics 15% +$1,815
crypto 9% −$133
tech 1% +$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (481 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 145 +31.5% +19.0% 70% 22% -0.7%
≤30d 145 +31.5% +19.0% 70% 22% -0.7%
≤90d 145 +31.5% +19.0% 70% 22% -0.7%
all 145 +31.5% +19.0% 70% 22% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover480.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +19.0% 22% -0.7%
10% ← realistic here +7.6% 17% -10.2%
15% -2.8% 13% -18.9%
20% -12.3% 11% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +48% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$31 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.58 per $1 lost it wins $3.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$11,095
Realized−$1,197
Unrealized−$281
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses102 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$144
Open positions136
Markets (closed)145 / 235
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$179
Trades / day480.5
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 136 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? No 94¢ 94¢ $2,699 $2,704 +$6 (+0%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $841 $846 +$6 (+1%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $462 $487 +$25 (+5%)
Will the Republicans win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026? Yes 94¢ 93¢ $486 $482 −$3 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $330 $334 +$4 (+1%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $218 $249 +$31 (+14%)
Will 9+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 86¢ $247 $246 −$1 (-0%)
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $244 $245 +$1 (+1%)
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $242 $231 −$11 (-4%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $227 $227 −$0 (-0%)
Will Australia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 91¢ $234 $227 −$6 (-3%)
Will Germany go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $229 $217 −$12 (-5%)
Will Curaçao be the worst-placed Central American nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 72¢ $239 $210 −$29 (-12%)
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? Yes 28¢ 34¢ $171 $208 +$37 (+21%)
Will New Zealand reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $207 $207 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $800b on June 30? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $185 $185 −$1 (-0%)
Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $162 $160 −$2 (-1%)
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 80¢ $155 $159 +$4 (+3%)
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Yes 74¢ 100¢ $112 $150 +$38 (+34%)
Will there be 20+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 94¢ $118 $120 +$2 (+2%)
Will Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg? Yes 37¢ 47¢ $91 $114 +$23 (+26%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? No 64¢ 62¢ $111 $109 −$2 (-2%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? No 88¢ 80¢ $116 $106 −$10 (-9%)
Will Paraguay reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $106 $106 −$0 (-0%)
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 85¢ $102 $105 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 Jun 18 $201 +$865 +431%
Will Loyiso Masuku be the next mayor of Johannesburg? Jun 18 $340 −$52 -15%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $440 −$239 -54%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $47 +$10 +21%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 17 $225 −$5 -2%
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the third most seats in the 2026 Sw Jun 17 $147 +$28 +19%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $174 +$26 +15%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? Jun 17 $2 $0 -18%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $585 +$1 +0%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 17 $187 +$2 +1%
Will there be 15+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $91 +$1 +2%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $153 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 17 $1,048 +$11 +1%
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $141 −$6 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? Jun 17 $17 +$1 +7%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $186 +$15 +8%
Will Croatia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $21 $0 -0%
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Iran reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $103 +$2 +2%
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $204 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $78 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 17 $693 −$93 -13%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Jun 17 $101 +$6 +6%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre Jun 17 $358 +$375 +104%
Will 7+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 17 $88 −$17 -19%
Will King Abdullah II attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $210 +$12 +6%
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $109 +$5 +4%
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $142 +$6 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 17 $573 +$2 +0%
Will South Korea go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 17 $26 +$1 +3%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $211 +$4 +2%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $798 +$41 +5%
Will Australia go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 16 $75 −$17 -22%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $54 $0 +1%
Will Cape Verde reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $155 +$1 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $147 −$147 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $57 −$57 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $82 +$16 +20%
Will the Liberals (L) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish pa Jun 16 $0 $0 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 16 $835 +$2 +0%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 16 $253 +$2 +1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $68 +$30 +44%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 16 $76 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by December 31? Jun 16 $24 +$33 +139%
Will the Left Party (V) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish p Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 16 $164 +$5 +3%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $497 +$3 +1%
Will Iraq reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $119 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 16 $108 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 62¢ $10 0m
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $17 5m
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 14m
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 16m
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 SELL No 74¢ $104 18m
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 SELL No 74¢ $62 18m
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 SELL No 74¢ $41 18m
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 SELL No 74¢ $740 18m
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 SELL No 74¢ $16 18m
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 SELL No 74¢ $104 18m
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 21m
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 28m
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 62¢ $12 31m
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 77¢ $7 38m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $45 42m
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $2 57m
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 62¢ $12 1h
Will the Republicans win the Kansas governor race in 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $33 1h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 62¢ $5 1h
Will 4+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY No 29¢ $90 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $103 1h
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $88 1h
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 16¢ $40 1h
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 1h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 62¢ $12 1h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 62¢ $13 1h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 62¢ $12 1h
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 16¢ $25 1h
Will Loyiso Masuku be the next mayor of Johannesburg? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 62¢ $12 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,094.88 · official $11,094.82 (match) · 3500 history records