Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:36:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16d9…f905 crypto 42 markets active 7h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3400 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$18,439 (+76%) realized +$18,439 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +500% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +362% what you keep after slip
Net edge+362%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate56%279W / 217L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$577per market
Trades / day3400.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$343
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3400 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+443.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 496 +500.5% +443.3% 56% 52% +54.2%
≤30d 496 +500.5% +443.3% 56% 52% +54.2%
≤90d 496 +500.5% +443.3% 56% 52% +54.2%
all 496 +500.5% +443.3% 56% 52% +54.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3400.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +443.3% 52% +54.2%
10% ← realistic here +391.3% 51% +39.4%
15% +343.9% 51% +25.9%
20% +300.3% 51% +13.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +90% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +501% · $-wt +90% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -70% → late +1071% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
81.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$209 vs −$95 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.81 per $1 lost it wins $2.81
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$18,439
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses279 / 217
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)496 / 42
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$577
Trades / day3400.0
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 496 Trades
no open positions (466 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$108 +802%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $24 +$126 +532%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 +$17 +5754%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$4 -1404%
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$3 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $17 +$208 +1259%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$103 -35220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$73 -29654%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$21 -255%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $44 +$109 +248%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $65 +$130 +199%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $99 −$146 -148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$127 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $39 +$226 +572%
Solana Up or Down - April 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $54 +$166 +311%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$119 +1710%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$516 +14971%
Solana Up or Down - April 1, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$48 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $57 −$76 -133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$193 +2961%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$85 +1499%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$335 +1130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $77 −$47 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $35 +$773 +2209%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$608 +24097%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $54 −$97 -178%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$10 -132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$49 +345%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $306 −$773 -253%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$114 +1968%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $44 +$77 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$97 +1822%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$89 +677%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $147 −$538 -365%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$20 -1913%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $58 +$87 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$456 +2338%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $82 −$45 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $28 +$356 +1262%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $80 −$241 -301%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$649 +4874%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $61 +$546 +895%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $19 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $16 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $16 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $23 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $22 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $22 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.95 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records