Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:58:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16d7…d408 crypto 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%37W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$5
14 days−$55
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$22
world 7% +$7
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -16.4% -24.4% 41% 41% -12.3%
≤30d 68 -4.8% -13.9% 54% 50% -12.3%
≤90d 68 -4.8% -13.9% 54% 50% -12.3%
all 68 -4.8% -13.9% 54% 50% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 50% -12.3%
10% -22.1% 50% -20.7%
15% -29.7% 41% -28.3%
20% -36.6% 32% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses37 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage21d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $22 +$14 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$8 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$3 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$6 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 05 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 05 $6 +$10 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 05 $10 +$9 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$11 +211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$2 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 02 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 02 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 01 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 01 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 01 $21 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 01 $7 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND BUY 17¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $18 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $10.00 · 146 history records