Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:20:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16d6…225e sports 164 markets active 0h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$475 (-9%) realized −$487 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate54%86W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$492
14 days−$618
30 days−$716
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$221
other 43% −$339
crypto 5% −$23
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +0.3% -9.3% 53% 47% -26.5%
≤30d 109 -23.5% -30.8% 40% 35% -25.8%
≤90d 159 -8.6% -17.3% 54% 49% -21.4%
all 159 -8.6% -17.3% 54% 49% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 49% -21.4%
10% -25.2% 37% -28.9%
15% -32.4% 28% -35.8%
20% -39.1% 18% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$22 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$487
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses86 / 73
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions5
Markets (closed)159 / 164
History coverage77d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 10¢ 29¢ $6 $17 +$11 (+203%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-11%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+31%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 24¢ 19¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $16 −$6 -35%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $75 −$74 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $32 −$32 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +143%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $17 +$10 +58%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $72 +$24 +33%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $59 +$19 +33%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$35 +68%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $61 +$39 +64%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $69 +$31 +46%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $304 −$203 -67%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $108 −$107 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $79 −$78 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $76 −$75 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $232 +$50 +22%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $321 −$49 -15%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $72 −$71 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $26 +$2 +7%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 −$19 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $94 +$56 +59%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $211 +$39 +18%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $130 +$69 +53%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $179 −$162 -90%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $50 +$28 +56%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $44 +$17 +40%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $26 −$1 -4%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $78 +$22 +28%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $77 +$22 +29%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $22 $0 +2%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $70 +$30 +43%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $86 +$13 +15%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $81 −$81 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $7 +$4 +59%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$6 -62%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -52%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $19 −$8 -40%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $13 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $17 −$14 -78%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $26 +$9 +36%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $13 −$13 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $56 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 20¢ $11 14m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 19¢ $22 29m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 8¢ $4 30m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 5¢ $8 31m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 35¢ $10 34m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 35¢ $1 35m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 36¢ $12 42m
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 49m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 45¢ $29 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 71¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 28¢ $29 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 49¢ $40 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 49¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 52¢ $60 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $61 21h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 21h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $75 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 34¢ $14 23h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 24h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 24h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 24h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 24h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 24h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 45¢ $18 25h
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $25 41h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 94¢ $70 41h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $72 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.87 · official $36.36 · 820 history records