Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:03:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16d4…6e9b sports 269 markets active 0h ago coverage 255d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,565 (-8%) realized −$1,535 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate27%68W / 185L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$104est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$477now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$639
7 days−$1,911
14 days−$1,911
30 days−$1,911
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$896
other 39% −$64
crypto 6% −$460
world 2% −$44
politics 2% −$223
tech 1% +$164
economics 1% −$104
finance 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-33.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 215 -33.6% -39.9% 22% 19% -24.4%
≤30d 215 -33.6% -39.9% 22% 19% -24.4%
≤90d 221 -32.8% -39.2% 23% 19% -23.9%
all 253 -26.8% -33.8% 27% 21% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.8% 21% -17.0%
10% -40.1% 19% -25.0%
15% -45.9% 16% -32.2%
20% -51.2% 15% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -24% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$36 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$477
Realized−$1,535
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses68 / 185
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$104
Open positions14
Markets (closed)253 / 269
History coverage255d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 253 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 65¢ 66¢ $220 $223 +$3 (+1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Under 35¢ 22¢ $128 $81 −$46 (-36%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 44¢ 44¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Under 12¢ 15¢ $24 $31 +$7 (+29%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+54%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+5%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 44¢ 42¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-15%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Under 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Colombia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 25¢ 27¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) IR Iran 2¢ 2¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+22%)
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 3 IR Iran? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 21 $5 −$4 -68%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 21 $51 +$65 +128%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 21 $51 +$117 +230%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 8.5 Corners Jun 21 $76 +$51 +68%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $13 −$2 -18%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $12 −$2 -15%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $13 −$2 -12%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $12 +$1 +5%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $6 +$2 +34%
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $8 +$3 +34%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $10 −$1 -11%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $11 −$4 -31%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $6 $0 -3%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +42%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $37 −$37 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $4 −$1 -26%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $4 −$2 -44%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $14 −$2 -14%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $25 −$4 -15%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $20 −$5 -24%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $94 −$17 -18%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $38 −$38 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $54 −$54 -100%
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $61 −$61 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 3 South Africa? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $49 −$49 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 21 $35 −$35 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 2¢ $0 6m
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 2¢ $1 6m
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 2¢ $2 7m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 7m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 36¢ $55 10m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 20¢ $10 13m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 16¢ $2 15m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 16¢ $3 15m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 16¢ $3 15m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 34¢ $69 18m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 30¢ $6 21m
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 3 IR Iran? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 27m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $74 33m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $7 33m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 88¢ $112 35m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $1 36m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 78¢ $101 36m
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) SELL IR Iran 0¢ $2 37m
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) SELL IR Iran 2¢ $8 37m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 23¢ $10 37m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $34 38m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $24 39m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 5¢ $5 48m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $41 59m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $41 59m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $10 1h
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) BUY IR Iran 1¢ $5 1h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 3¢ $10 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 1¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $476.82 · official $504.04 · 1731 history records