Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:58:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16d3…a323 crypto 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$11 (-14%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$19
other 38% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-59.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -54.8% -59.1% 25% 25% -53.7%
≤30d 12 -54.8% -59.1% 25% 25% -53.7%
≤90d 12 -54.8% -59.1% 25% 25% -53.7%
all 12 -54.8% -59.1% 25% 25% -53.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -59.1% 25% -53.7%
10% ← realistic here -63.0% 25% -58.1%
15% -66.6% 17% -62.1%
20% -69.9% 8% -65.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -69% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$6 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $3 2h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.55 · official $19.55 (match) · 30 history records