Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:19:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16d3…7c23 sports 252 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$57,565 (-54%) realized −$57,559 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate30%75W / 175L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$420per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$670est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$7,683
30 days−$7,674
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$28,232
other 39% −$29,619
weather 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -10.7% -19.2% 33% 33% -23.6%
≤30d 23 -31.2% -37.7% 39% 30% -38.9%
≤90d 245 -14.2% -22.4% 31% 21% -59.0%
all 250 -14.4% -22.6% 30% 21% -59.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 21% -59.0%
10% -30.0% 16% -62.9%
15% -36.7% 12% -66.5%
20% -42.9% 10% -69.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$123 vs −$404 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$57,559
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses75 / 175
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$670
Open positions2
Markets (closed)250 / 252
History coverage103d
Avg bet$420
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? No 94¢ 94¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 55¢ $6 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 14 $15 $0 -3%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +11%
Set 1 Winner: Stojsavljevic vs Kostyuk Jun 11 $12 −$5 -40%
Bratislava: Martin Krumich vs Maxim Mrva Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Alexandrova vs Udvardy Jun 08 $22 −$21 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $9 +$1 +17%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $4 +$1 +20%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $6 −$6 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $3,268 +$32 +1%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $12,567 +$23 +0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 05 $5 $0 -3%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $2 +$3 +180%
Fenerbahce vs. Anadolu Efes Jun 03 $8 +$2 +31%
Spurs vs. Thunder: Team to Score First Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Fisher College - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PlayTime (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B Jun 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 03 $2,055 −$2,055 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B Jun 03 $5,629 −$5,629 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $2 +$3 +119%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner May 18 $13 +$7 +50%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner May 14 $4 +$1 +21%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $4 +$6 +152%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? May 13 $8 +$2 +18%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $266 +$576 +216%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Apr 30 $261 +$71 +27%
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $328 −$40 -12%
Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $544 −$86 -16%
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $16 −$1 -5%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 29 $7 $0 -4%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 P Apr 26 $23 +$8 +32%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $8,160 −$8,160 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $13,387 −$13,387 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $7,350 −$7,189 -98%
LoL: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 25 $3,761 +$1,717 +46%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $18,000 −$18,000 -100%
Will SSC Napoli vs. US Cremonese end in a draw? Apr 25 $1,883 +$442 +24%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 24 $9,862 −$9,862 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Senators Apr 24 $6,033 +$3,151 +52%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-04-23? Apr 23 $7,272 +$2,773 +38%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-20? Apr 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21? Apr 23 $2,053 −$2,053 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Quali Apr 23 $2 +$8 +344%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 23 $834 +$222 +27%
Valorant: NRG vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega Apr 20 $9 +$1 +13%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 17 $35 −$31 -91%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-16? Apr 17 $23 +$9 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 55¢ $6 53m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $9 58m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $9 59m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $9 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $9 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $9 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi SELL Suzan Lamens 69¢ $14 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Suzan Lamens 70¢ $15 2d
Bratislava: Martin Krumich vs Maxim Mrva BUY Martin Krumich 36¢ $2 7d
Set 1 Winner: Alexandrova vs Udvardy BUY Alexandrova 61¢ $22 8d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 90¢ $5 9d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 83¢ $4 9d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 85¢ $4 9d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 85¢ $4 9d
Set 1 Winner: Stojsavljevic vs Kostyuk BUY Kostyuk 82¢ $8 9d
Set 1 Winner: Stojsavljevic vs Kostyuk BUY Kostyuk 83¢ $4 9d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 61¢ $6 9d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Yandex 99¢ $3,007 10d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Yandex 99¢ $261 10d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Yandex 100¢ $2,577 10d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Yandex 100¢ $9,372 10d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Yandex 100¢ $618 10d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 54¢ $5 11d
Fenerbahce vs. Anadolu Efes BUY Fenerbahce 76¢ $8 13d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 54¢ $5 13d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 24¢ $74 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 23¢ $435 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $635 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 37¢ $114 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 37¢ $233 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.76 · official $46.76 (match) · 1112 history records