Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:28:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16d1…011c politics 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate30%11W / 26L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% $0
world 31% +$1
other 23% $0
crypto 6% $0
culture 5% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.7% -11.1% 25% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 7 -1.0% -10.4% 14% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 12 +0.1% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.1%
all 37 -0.5% -10.0% 30% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses11 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage302d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $28 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $29 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $27 +$1 +5%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $6 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $5 −$1 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $28 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $13 $0 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $3 $0 +5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $1 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $28 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 19 $7 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 19 $13 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 19 $35 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in September? Sep 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 18 $26 $0 +1%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 18 $2 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 17 $1 $0 -6%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Sep 16 $25 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Sep 16 $1 $0 -7%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 16 $2 $0 -9%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 15 $33 $0 -0%
Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? Sep 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Sam Soverel win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Sep 02 $7 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 28 $36 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 26 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $28 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $29 6h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $29 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $15 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $14 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $27 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 31h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 33h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 40h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 41h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $28 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $20 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $8 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $31 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $31 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $28 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $28 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $28 31d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $28 31d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $14 31d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $13 31d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 34d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 34d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 34d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 34d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $28 35d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $28 36d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $7 278d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 97¢ $13 278d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.55 · official $28.55 (match) · 144 history records