Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:15:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16d0…4c64 world 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 521d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate36%13W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$7
other 27% −$16
politics 23% −$14
sports 12% +$5
tech 3% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.6% -8.1% 55% 9% -7.8%
≤30d 14 +1.3% -8.3% 57% 7% -8.2%
≤90d 29 -0.6% -10.1% 31% 3% -9.9%
all 36 +1.8% -7.9% 36% 6% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 6% -10.3%
10% -16.7% 3% -18.9%
15% -24.8% 3% -26.7%
20% -32.1% 3% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

521d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses13 / 23
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage521d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 57¢ 56¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $34 +$1 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $40 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $54 +$1 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $47 +$6 +12%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $10 $0 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $33 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $34 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 10 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $73 $0 +0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 25 $119 $0 +0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 24 $121 −$14 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $18 −$1 -5%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $74 −$1 -1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 20 $121 +$1 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 07 $8 $0 -6%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 07 $247 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $106 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $247 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $247 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $248 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $10 −$1 -5%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $13 −$1 -8%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Holland vs. de Ridder Jan 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Chiefs beat the Texans by 9 or more points? Jan 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Ravens and Bills combine for 52 or more points? Jan 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Brentford vs. Manchester City end in a draw? Jan 15 $3 +$9 +376%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $41 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 39¢ $7 6h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 39¢ $27 6h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 38¢ $34 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $33 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $7 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $40 25h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 29h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 29h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $44 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $44 33h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $44 40h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $44 42h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $16 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $4 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $11 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $9 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $7 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $12 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $13 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $37 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $37 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $9 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $10 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $34 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $34 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.67 · official $41.40 (match) · 114 history records