Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:44:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
16 0x16cf…f719 sports 310 markets active 2h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$149 (-0%) realized −$214 · open +$65
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate52%159W / 144L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$509est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$805now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$126
7 days−$244
14 days−$244
30 days+$176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$229
crypto 10% −$17
other 6% −$209
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -14.5% -22.6% 48% 22% -10.7%
≤30d 195 +1.4% -8.3% 60% 45% -9.0%
≤90d 284 -7.3% -16.1% 52% 42% -11.1%
all 303 -5.9% -14.9% 52% 42% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 42% -10.8%
10% -23.0% 34% -19.3%
15% -30.5% 26% -27.1%
20% -37.3% 19% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$44 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$805
Realized−$214
Unrealized+$65
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses159 / 144
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$509
Open positions7
Markets (closed)303 / 310
History coverage141d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 303 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? No 75¢ 74¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 80¢ $100 $146 +$46 (+46%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Over 84¢ 100¢ $100 $119 +$19 (+19%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Over 83¢ 82¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 Over 78¢ 78¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Under 67¢ 66¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 93¢ 95¢ $91 $93 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 114 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $14 +$2 +13%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Honvéd - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $330 +$60 +18%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $202 +$72 +36%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $195 +$105 +54%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $546 +$30 +6%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 23 $367 −$39 -11%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $182 +$18 +10%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $910 +$111 +12%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $201 −$186 -93%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $1,830 +$50 +3%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $667 +$3 +0%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $303 −$9 -3%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $301 −$5 -2%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $301 −$5 -2%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $203 −$10 -5%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $4,123 +$333 +8%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series Jun 22 $3,581 +$105 +3%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan Jun 22 $304 −$201 -66%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $135 −$129 -96%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $2,568 −$240 -9%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $1,181 −$108 -9%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $30 +$3 +9%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $85 −$85 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $257 −$257 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $51 +$65 +128%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $41 −$40 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 10 $9 −$9 -97%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $201 +$65 +32%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $223 −$4 -2%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $139 +$61 +44%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $135 +$15 +11%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $90 +$49 +55%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $29 +$20 +67%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $49 −$34 -69%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $115 −$114 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 07 $45 −$1 -2%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Elsa Jacquemot vs Hanyu Guo Jun 07 $272 −$170 -62%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $61 +$39 +64%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $41 +$50 +123%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Maddison Inglis vs Alycia Parks Jun 07 $41 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Liberia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $20 +$14 +67%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $61 +$39 +64%
Will Sierra Leone win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $187 −$37 -20%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $51 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 93¢ $91 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 75¢ $151 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $101 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $100 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY Alpha Gaming 50¢ $100 10h
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming - Map 1 Winner SELL Alpha Gaming 46¢ $16 10h
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY Alpha Gaming 40¢ $14 10h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Honvéd - Map 1 Winner SELL Honvéd 60¢ $130 11h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Honvéd - Map 1 Winner SELL Honvéd 60¢ $50 11h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Honvéd - Map 1 Winner SELL Honvéd 60¢ $90 11h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Honvéd - Map 1 Winner SELL Honvéd 60¢ $30 11h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Honvéd - Map 1 Winner SELL Honvéd 60¢ $30 11h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Honvéd - Map 1 Winner SELL Honvéd 60¢ $60 11h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Honvéd - Map 1 Winner BUY Honvéd 55¢ $14 11h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Honvéd - Map 1 Winner BUY Honvéd 55¢ $16 11h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Honvéd - Map 1 Winner BUY Honvéd 55¢ $3 11h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Honvéd - Map 1 Winner BUY Honvéd 55¢ $16 11h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Honvéd - Map 1 Winner BUY Honvéd 55¢ $4 11h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Honvéd - Map 1 Winner BUY Honvéd 55¢ $2 11h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Honvéd - Map 1 Winner BUY Honvéd 55¢ $20 11h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Honvéd - Map 1 Winner BUY Honvéd 55¢ $12 11h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Honvéd - Map 1 Winner BUY Honvéd 55¢ $26 11h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Honvéd - Map 1 Winner BUY Honvéd 55¢ $3 11h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Honvéd - Map 1 Winner BUY Honvéd 55¢ $3 11h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Honvéd - Map 1 Winner BUY Honvéd 55¢ $3 11h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Honvéd - Map 1 Winner BUY Honvéd 55¢ $12 11h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Honvéd - Map 1 Winner BUY Honvéd 55¢ $33 11h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Honvéd - Map 1 Winner BUY Honvéd 55¢ $18 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $805.46 · official $805.46 (match) · 1400 history records