Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:27:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
16 0x16cb…7c18 sports 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$15 (+21%) realized +$16 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate60%12W / 8L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day23.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$12
other 14% −$1
crypto 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +19.6% +8.2% 60% 55% +7.6%
≤30d 20 +19.6% +8.2% 60% 55% +7.6%
≤90d 20 +19.6% +8.2% 60% 55% +7.6%
all 20 +19.6% +8.2% 60% 55% +7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.2% 55% +7.6%
10% ← realistic here -2.2% 50% -2.7%
15% -11.6% 45% -12.1%
20% -20.3% 35% -20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses12 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage2d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day23.3
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Uruguay 17¢ 10¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -86%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$5 +169%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -16%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 +$2 +64%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +89%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $11 −$11 -94%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +6%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $8 +$6 +79%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -22%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +19%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $6 −$1 -16%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $2 $0 +23%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +39%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$3 +246%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$5 +119%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +55%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $4 +$2 +40%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$1 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 14¢ $1 13m
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 20¢ $2 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 84¢ $5 2h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $3 3h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 17¢ $1 4h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 64¢ $4 4h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 3¢ $1 4h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 4h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 24¢ $1 5h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $10 6h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 81¢ $3 24h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $15 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 25h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $4 25h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $1 27h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $3 27h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 27h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $4 27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.80 · official $1.80 (match) · 51 history records