Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:30:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16c9…0bc5 other 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate40%33W / 50L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% +$1
other 30% +$3
world 23% −$4
sports 5% +$2
culture 4% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.8% -8.8% 14% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 15 +0.2% -9.4% 27% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 26 +0.6% -9.0% 35% 0% -9.5%
all 83 -1.3% -10.7% 40% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 1% -9.5%
10% -19.2% 1% -18.2%
15% -27.0% 1% -26.1%
20% -34.2% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses33 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage448d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 32¢ 36¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $55 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $77 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $6 $0 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $28 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $90 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $97 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $89 +$1 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $89 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $36 −$2 -6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $179 −$4 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $85 +$2 +2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $92 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 09 $84 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $84 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $63 +$1 +1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $54 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Apr 03 $11 +$1 +10%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 03 $634 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $577 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $634 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? Mar 31 $575 +$2 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $38 $0 +0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $573 +$1 +0%
Will Benicio Del Toro win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Aw Mar 15 $227 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 14 $6 $0 -6%
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Mar 11 $148 −$1 -1%
Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5 Mar 11 $225 +$4 +2%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 16 $7 $0 +2%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $3 $0 -3%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 25 $14 −$1 -8%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 20 $14 $0 +1%
Will Alexander Albon finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 19 $14 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? May 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? May 17 $14 $0 -0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 17 $13 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 16 $2 −$1 -52%
Will George Russell win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix? May 14 $14 $0 -3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 14 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? May 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 13 $21 $0 -0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 12 $36 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $55 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $55 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $74 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $4 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $77 8h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $61 41h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 43h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $52 43h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $25 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $25 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $90 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $90 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $32 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $32 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $90 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $90 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $90 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $89 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $88 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $89 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 16¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.07 · official $0.00 (match) · 277 history records