Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:22:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16c9…8c1d other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 265d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate35%11W / 20L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$5
politics 25% $0
world 16% $0
sports 9% +$10
culture 4% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 +0.1% -9.5% 40% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 5 +0.1% -9.5% 40% 0% -9.9%
all 31 +0.7% -8.9% 35% 10% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 10% -8.9%
10% -17.6% 10% -17.6%
15% -25.6% 3% -25.5%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 85% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

265d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses11 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage265d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $4 $0 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $14 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $31 −$1 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 12 $79 +$2 +3%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Dec 12 $49 −$17 -34%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA? Dec 02 $1 $0 -14%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 26 $2 $0 +7%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $49 $0 +0%
Patriots vs. Bengals Nov 25 $35 +$10 +30%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Nov 20 $26 +$10 +38%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 05 $3 +$1 +29%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Oct 27 $5 $0 -2%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will the next Dutch government be another combination? Oct 26 $3 −$1 -34%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Oct 26 $3 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31? Oct 26 $1 $0 -0%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 26 $27 $0 -1%
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Oct 12 $27 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Oct 12 $26 $0 -0%
Will Chow Hang‑tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $26 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $31 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $31 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $31 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $13 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $14 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 75¢ $30 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 77¢ $31 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $19 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $13 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $32 25d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $21 175d
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 197d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $21 203d
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? SELL No 81¢ $19 203d
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? BUY No 81¢ $8 203d
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? BUY No 81¢ $1 203d
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? BUY No 81¢ $12 203d
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? BUY No 81¢ $8 203d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 203d
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? SELL No 81¢ $29 203d
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? BUY No 81¢ $29 203d
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? SELL No 80¢ $16 203d
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? SELL No 81¢ $15 203d
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? BUY No 81¢ $15 203d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.10 · official $31.10 (match) · 195 history records