Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:27:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16c9…714a world 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate42%16W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$2
other 23% +$5
politics 7% $0
crypto 5% $0
tech 3% −$9
economics 2% $0
sports 2% $0
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 29% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 20 +0.2% -9.3% 40% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 20 +0.2% -9.3% 40% 0% -9.2%
all 38 -1.9% -11.3% 42% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 5% -9.6%
10% -19.7% 3% -18.2%
15% -27.5% 3% -26.1%
20% -34.6% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses16 / 22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage454d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 96¢ 96¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $29 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $57 $0 +1%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $55 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $34 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $70 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $8 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $9 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $17 −$1 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $34 +$3 +8%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $7 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $69 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $109 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 -0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Jun 24 $16 $0 +2%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Jun 24 $11 −$9 -78%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $2 $0 +2%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 20 $2 +$1 +75%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president Apr 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in his first 100 days? Apr 19 $27 $0 -0%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 19 $25 +$5 +20%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix? Apr 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Apr 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 04 $25 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 01 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $26 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in March? Mar 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before April? Mar 28 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $28 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $12 16h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $23 16h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $34 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $18 23h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $25 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $25 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $38 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $38 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $17 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $17 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $26 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $34 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $22 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $22 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $25 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $6 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $31 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $38 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $38 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $8 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.90 · official $27.88 (match) · 139 history records