Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:47:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16c8…1bad sports 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,911 (-27%) realized −$1,602 · open −$309
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%21W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day56.6pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$1,130
other 20% −$1,141
world 4% −$256
crypto 1% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-41.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -35.5% -41.6% 34% 33% -41.5%
≤30d 61 -35.5% -41.6% 34% 33% -41.5%
≤90d 61 -35.5% -41.6% 34% 33% -41.5%
all 61 -35.5% -41.6% 34% 33% -41.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.6% 33% -41.5%
10% ← realistic here -47.2% 30% -47.1%
15% -52.3% 30% -52.2%
20% -57.0% 25% -56.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$94 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$1,602
Unrealized−$309
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses21 / 40
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions2
Markets (closed)61 / 65
History coverage2d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day56.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 34¢ $75 $53 −$22 (-30%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $287 $1 −$287 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $51 −$4 -7%
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $51 −$3 -6%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Ghan Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Jun 15 $256 −$256 -100%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $370 +$46 +12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $151 −$149 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $150 +$77 +51%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $417 −$410 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $233 −$233 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $152 −$108 -71%
Nikola Bartunkova vs. Diana Shnaider: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $50 +$19 +38%
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Svajda (+1.5) Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $77 −$77 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $152 −$150 -98%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $252 −$250 -99%
Set Handicap: Sakkari (-1.5) vs Zheng (+1.5) Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $685 −$478 -70%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $523 +$45 +9%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $29 +$43 +149%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Aleksandar Pavlovic: 1+ assists Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Felix Nmecha: 1+ assists Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $152 +$140 +92%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $25 +$18 +70%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 15 $171 +$336 +196%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 15 $100 +$17 +17%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) Jun 14 $68 +$30 +44%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $97 +$70 +73%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $76 +$59 +78%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 9.5 Corners Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $101 +$36 +36%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $40 +$27 +67%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $51 +$42 +83%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$63 +62%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $37 +$25 +67%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 +$31 +62%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $102 +$180 +176%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1 59m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 28¢ $293 1h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $47 3h
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 31¢ $48 3h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Ghan SELL 0¢ $0 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND SELL 0¢ $0 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 6¢ $27 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL No 99¢ $226 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $80 4h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 27¢ $1 4h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $415 4h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones SELL Talia Gibson 99¢ $416 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $44 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 14¢ $44 4h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Francesca Jones 81¢ $69 5h
Nikola Bartunkova vs. Diana Shnaider: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2.5 100¢ $69 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $150 5h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 46¢ $152 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $152 5h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 69¢ $252 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $102 5h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 25¢ $256 5h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Talia Gibson 79¢ $49 6h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 44¢ $51 6h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 21¢ $5 6h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Talia Gibson 70¢ $252 6h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 46¢ $178 6h
Nikola Bartunkova vs. Diana Shnaider: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 72¢ $50 6h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 100¢ $568 6h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 94¢ $451 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.16 · official $53.16 (match) · 143 history records