trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 4? | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | +20% |
| Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 8? | Jun 12 | $0 | $0 | +47% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 4? | Jun 12 | $0 | $0 | +30% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? | Jun 12 | $0 | $0 | +26% |
| Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 6? | Jun 12 | $0 | $0 | +100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 6? | Jun 12 | $0 | $0 | +47% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? | Jun 12 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 5? | Jun 12 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 4? | Jun 12 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or higher on May 24? | Jun 12 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11? | Jun 11 | $2 | $0 | +8% |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? | Jun 10 | $371 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 9? | Jun 09 | $0 | $0 | +400% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 13 | +29.8% | +17.4% | 69% | 69% | +13.5% |
| ≤30d | 13 | +29.8% | +17.4% | 69% | 69% | +13.5% |
| ≤90d | 13 | +29.8% | +17.4% | 69% | 69% | +13.5% |
| all | 13 | +29.8% | +17.4% | 69% | 69% | +13.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +17.4% | 69% | +13.5% |
| 10% ← realistic here | +6.2% | 62% | +2.6% |
| 15% | -4.1% | 46% | -7.3% |
| 20% | -13.5% | 23% | -16.4% |