Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:23:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16c4…f486 other 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-24%) realized −$3 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$2
world 37% $0
crypto 25% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-55.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -50.2% -55.0% 0% 0% -75.9%
≤30d 2 -50.2% -55.0% 0% 0% -75.9%
≤90d 2 -50.2% -55.0% 0% 0% -75.9%
all 2 -50.2% -55.0% 0% 0% -75.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -55.0% 0% -75.9%
10% ← realistic here -59.3% 0% -78.2%
15% -63.2% 0% -80.3%
20% -66.8% 0% -82.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -73% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -73% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$3 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)2 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-26%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 4m
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 11m
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 19m
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 20m
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 23m
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 31m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 43m
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 52m
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 1h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 1h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 1h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 1h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 1h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 1h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 1h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 1h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 1h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 1h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 1h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 1h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 1h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 1h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 1h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $3 13h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $3 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $2 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.48 · official $11.48 (match) · 30 history records