Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:36:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x16c2…7382
crypto · 554 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
−$209 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$209 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$209
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses266 / 288
Open positions0
Markets (closed)554 / 554
History coverage443d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 0 History 554 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$5
14 days+$2
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +79%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +68%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +86%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +73%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 65% +$109
other 21% −$237
sports 14% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 175 +1.3% -8.3% 55% 55% -7.6%
≤30d 541 -5.9% -14.8% 49% 49% -13.5%
≤90d 541 -5.9% -14.8% 49% 49% -13.5%
all 554 -6.5% -15.4% 48% 48% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 48% -18.6%
10% -23.5% 48% -26.3%
15% -30.9% 47% -33.5%
20% -37.7% 45% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 907 history records