Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:54:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16bf…4a79 other 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate47%22W / 25L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$4
other 24% +$1
politics 8% +$1
sports 7% +$6
crypto 4% $0
weather 2% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)+12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 12 +87.4% +69.6% 25% 17% -10.5%
≤90d 12 +87.4% +69.6% 25% 17% -10.5%
all 47 +23.8% +12.0% 47% 13% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.0% 13% -9.2%
10% +1.3% 6% -17.9%
15% -8.5% 4% -25.8%
20% -17.5% 4% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +41% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses22 / 25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage490d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 48¢ 48¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 76¢ 81¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $36 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $76 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $37 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $41 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $79 −$5 -6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $42 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $38 $0 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 +14%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Dec 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? Dec 11 $1 $0 +5%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jun 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 05 $9 +$1 +12%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? May 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el May 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 43.5% and 43.9% on May 16? May 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 15 $10 +$2 +15%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Prince Edward Island Apr 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? Apr 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days? Apr 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? Apr 22 $11 $0 -3%
Will Elena Lasconi advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof Apr 18 $11 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Apr 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 07 $1 $0 +30%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in April? Apr 06 $1 $0 +8%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? Apr 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? Apr 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? Apr 02 $15 $0 +1%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025? Apr 01 $17 −$1 -6%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 29 $17 $0 -0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $15 +$1 +7%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 19 $16 $0 -0%
IUPUI vs. Wright State Mar 04 $17 −$2 -10%
Sharks vs. Sabres Mar 04 $18 $0 +0%
New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State Mar 04 $8 +$8 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 56¢ $40 20m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 56¢ $2 20m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $40 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $37 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $8 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $30 11h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 75¢ $1 11d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $15 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $3 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $22 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $40 13d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $36 13d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $7 13d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $29 13d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $24 13d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $16 13d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $40 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 69¢ $2 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 69¢ $34 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 68¢ $10 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $3 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $24 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 53¢ $36 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 54¢ $9 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 54¢ $28 14d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? SELL No 99¢ $41 14d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 99¢ $41 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $1 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $36 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $37 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.39 · official $5.39 (match) · 139 history records